Would-be bottom-pickers in the recently beaten-up commodity markets beware. Bottom-pickers are usually not successful. It is better to wait for a solid bullish near-term technical signal for market entry on the long side of a beaten-up market.

- Jim Wyckoff

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Hello again Fast Break readers. It's my pleasure to be able to show you some of my latest work from Tuesday afternoon.

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.37 at $95.15 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today, and did poke to a fresh 12-month low early on. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured today. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted recently, amid global recession worries that spell less demand for beef. Prices are still in a 14-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. However, the market is still short-term oversold and due for more of a corrective bounce soon. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $97.50, which would fill on the upside Monday's downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $94.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $96.20 and then at $97.00. First support is seen at today's low of $94.75 and then at $94.50.

December lean hogs closed up $1.57 at $61.40 today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, and closed near the session high on short covering in a bear market. However, if there is good follow-through buying on Wednesday, then a bullish "island bottom" reversal pattern would be confirmed on the daily bar chart -- which would be one early technical clue that a market low is in place. But right now hog bears still have the solid technical advantage. Prices are still in a steep two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push prices above solid chart resistance at $63.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing prices and closing below solid technical support, at the contract low of $58.70. First resistance is seen at today's high of $61.65, and then at $62.00. First support is seen at $61.00 and then at today's low of $60.50.

GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 4 3/4 cents at $4.19 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low, and hit another fresh 9.5-month low today. Very serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted in corn recently, amid fears of deflationary pressures and less worldwide demand. However, the market is still short-term oversold technically, and due for a corrective bounce soon. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below major psychological support at $4.00. The bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above resistance at $4.50. First resistance for December corn is seen at today's high of $4.29, and then at $4.40. First support is seen at today's low of $4.12 3/4 and then at $4.00.

November soybeans closed up 11 cents at $9.33 today. Prices hit a fresh 12-month low early on today, and then did close near mid-range, supported on tepid short covering in a bear market. Very serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the market is still short-term oversold and due for more of an upside corrective bounce very soon. The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance, at this week's high of $9.83 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $9.00. First resistance for November soybeans is seen at today's high of $9.51, and then at $9.83. First support is seen at today's low of $9.16, and then at $9.00.

December Chicago soft red winter wheat closed up 12 cents, at $6.07 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering in a bear market. Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently. The wheat bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. However, the market is still short-term oversold -- and due for more of an upside corrective bounce very soon. Prices are still in a six-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close December futures prices above solid technical resistance, at $6.50 a bushel. First resistance is seen at today's high of $6.15 3/4, and then at $6.25. First support lies at today's low of $5.94, and then at this week's low of $5.88 1/2.

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 12 points at 11.92 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low on short covering in a bear market. Prices hit a 10-month low on Monday. Very serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. The market is still technically oversold, and due for at least a corrective upside bounce very soon. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 12.50 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 11.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 12.00 cents, and then at today's high of 12.23 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 11.72 cents, and then at 11.50 cents.

December coffee closed down 25 points at 114.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low, and closed at a fresh contract low close today. Very serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted recently. Coffee bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the market is still oversold technically, and due for an upside corrective bounce soon. Coffee bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 122.05 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 110.00 cents a pound. First support is seen at this week's low of 112.95 cents, and then at 112.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 116.30 cents, and then at 118.00 cents.

December cocoa closed up $14 at $2,414 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a fresh 5.5-month low. Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,500. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $2,235. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,459, and then at $2,500. First support is seen at today's low of $2,396, and then at this week's low of $2,378.

December cotton closed down 76 points at 53.65 cents today. Prices hit another fresh contract low today. Very serious chart damage has been inflicted recently, including more today. Cotton bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below strong psychological support at 50.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid chart resistance, at this week's high of 57.34 cents. First resistance is seen at 54.00 cents, and then at 55.00 cents. First support is seen at today's contract low of 53.41 cents, and then at 53.00.

November orange juice closed up 65 points at $.8230. Prices closed near mid-range again today in quieter trading. The recent "collapse in volatility" makes me suspect a bigger price move is on the horizon. Bears are still in technical control, as prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical objective for the frozen concentrated orange juice bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $.7500. The next upside price objective for the OJ bulls is pushing prices above solid technical resistance at $.9000. First resistance is seen at today's high of $.8445, and then at $.8600. First support is seen at today's low of $.8135, and then at $.8000.

METALS: December gold futures closed up $22.30 at $888.50 today. Prices again closed nearer the session high today on more short covering and safe-haven buying interest, amid the stock and financial market meltdown that has worsened this week. My bias is still that the upside is limited to around last week's high. Gold bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above psychological resistance at $900.00. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $822.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $893.70, and then at $900.00. Support is seen at $880.00 and then at $870.00.

December silver futures closed up 25.5 cents at $11.54 an ounce today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering and a rally in gold. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above psychological resistance at $12.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $10.84. First resistance is seen at today's high of $11.90, and then at $12.00. Next support is seen at $11.25, and then at $11.00.

December N.Y. copper closed up 95 points at 250.25 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today on tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit an 18-month low. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage in copper. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support, at this week's low of 235.25 cents. Bulls' next upside objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance, at this week's high of 264.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 245.35 cents, and then at 242.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 255.00 cents, and then at 260.00 cents.

ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $2.39 at $90.20 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering after prices hit a fresh eight-month low on Monday. A recently stronger U.S. dollar, the impending world economic slowdown and lessening demand for crude all are still bearish factors for this market. My bias is that rallies in crude will still be selling opportunities in the near term. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below technical support at $85.00. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above technical resistance, at $95.00 a barrel. First resistance is seen at $91.00, and then at $92.00. First support is seen at today's low of $89.00, and then at $88.00.

November natural gas closed down 3.3 cents at $6.802 today. Prices closed nearer the session low, and hit a fresh contract low again today. Bears remain in technical control of natural gas, as prices this week have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at lower price levels. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.500. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below psychological support at $6.000. First resistance is seen at today's high of $7.011, and then at $7.176. First support is seen at today's contract low of $6.73 and then at $6.50.

Jim Wyckoff is a contributing analyst for RJO Futures. He has spent nearly 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with what is now the Dow Jones Newswires service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Not long after he began his career in financial/commodity market journalism, Jim began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, Jim realized the playing field could be leveled between the "professional insiders" in the markets and traders/analysts like him.

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