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Trader's Tip

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Watch the trend of the market closely, no matter what your trading timeframe. The vast majority of successful traders employ some sort of price trend analysis in their trading methods.
- Jim Wyckoff | |
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Today's Featured Article

Dear Fast Break
reader. Hello again and thanks for allowing me to show you some of my work. Today, I'm going to provide you with a portion of my Daily Markets Update report from Tuesday afternoon. I do follow all of the markets on a daily basis, and you can check below to see the key technical points and my exclusive "Wyckoff's Market Rating" for the markets you are following. An explanation of my rating system is below. Email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com if you have any questions as I enjoy hearing from my readers all over the world.
Tuesday Evening, January 13 -- Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update
LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $1.10 at $84.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were supported by short covering in a bear market and on ideas that cash cattle prices will fetch higher money when trade commences later this week. Bearish "outside markets" -- weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar -- did limit the upside in cattle today. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to suggest a retest of the December contract low, or below, in the near term. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices above solid technical resistance at $86.00.
Trading livestock and want to know more about its related markets? Go here. The next downside technical objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $82.75. First resistance is seen at $84.50 and then at today's high of $84.90. First support is seen at today's low of $83.55 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
February lean hogs closed down $0.07 at $61.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-week low again today. Bearish "outside markets" -- weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar -- pressured hogs today. Hog bulls are fading and a retest of the recent contract low is likely. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $64.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $61.75 and then at $62.00. First support is seen at today's low of $61.27 and then at $60.95. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0. | |
GRAINS:
March corn futures closed down 18 1/2 cents at $3.62 1/4 today. Prices hit a fresh four-week low and closed near the session low today, on strong follow-through selling pressure from limit-down losses on Monday. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted this week. Bearish "outside markets" -- lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar -- also pressured corn today. This week's price action appears to be the beginning of the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon on the grains.
To receive a complimentary recent forecast for corn go here.
The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $3.50 a bushel. The bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above major psychological resistance at $4.00. First resistance for March corn is seen at $3.75 and then at $3.80. First support is seen at today's low of $3.61 3/4 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
March soybeans closed up 7 1/2 cents at $9.73 1/2 a bushel today. Tepid short covering was featured after limit losses on Monday. Bearish "outside markets" -- lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar -- limited the upside in soybeans today. Dry weather in Argentina is a supportive factor for soybeans, at present. This week's price action appears to be the beginning of the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon on the grains. The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices back above major psychological resistance at $10.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $9.00 a
bushel. First resistance for March soybeans is seen at today's high of $9.92 and then at $10.00. First support is seen at today's low of $9.60 and then at $9.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
March Chicago SRW wheat closed up 3 1/4 cents at $5.73 today. Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh three-week low today. Bearish outside markets" -- weaker crude oil and a firmer U.S. dollar -- limited the upside in wheat today. This week's price action is suggestive of the start of the seasonal "February Break" phenomenon in the grains. Trading wheat and want to know more about its related markets?
Go here.
The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $5.00. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close March futures prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $6.46 1/4 a bushel. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support lies at today's low of $5.61 and then at $5.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
SOFTS: March sugar closed up 12 points at 11.59 cents today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering in a bear market. Bearish "outside markets" -- weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar -- did limit the upside in sugar today. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 12.46 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 10.76 cents. First resistance is seen at 11.75 cents and then at 12.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 11.41 cents and then at 11.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
March cotton closed down 28 points at 46.39 cents today. Prices closed near the session low again today amid bearish "outside markets" -- weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. Bulls are fading this week and need to show power soon. To receive a complimentary recent forecast for cotton go here.
The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below technical support at 44.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 47.35 cents and then at 48.00 cents. First support is seen at 46.00 cents and then at 45.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
METALS: February gold futures closed up $0.30 at $821.30 today. Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh four-week low. Prices this week have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a trading range on the daily chart. Bearish "outside markets" today -- lower crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar -- did limit buying interest in the gold market today. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted this week. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $800.00. Gold bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $860.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $831.40 and then at $836.00. Support
is seen at today's low of $814.00 and then at $800.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $0.57 at $38.16 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high after trading below unchanged for most of the session. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained downside momentum recently. Prices remain in a six-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below technical support at the contract low of $35.13.
Trading crude oil and want to know more about its related markets? Go here. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a closes above solid technical resistance at $45.00 a barrel. First resistance is seen at $39.00 and then at $40.00. First support is seen at $37.50 and then at today's low of $36.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5. | |
Understanding Wyckoff's Market Rating System
My Daily Markets Update displays the exclusive "Wyckoff's Market Rating System" for each market. I distill risk, probability, technical indicators, fundamental analysis and many other factors in determining these ratings.
This simple system can be your quick key to how all the markets are trending (if they are) on a longer-term and shorter-term basis.
My Wyckoff's Market Rating System is based on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the most bearish market rating and 10 being the most bullish market rating. The number 5 would be a neutral rating. And it is not uncommon to see fractions used -- like 1.5, 3.5, etc. -- if conditions warrant.
It's important to note that just because a market is rated as very bullish (8 or above), it does not mean I want to establish a fresh long position in that market. A high rating likely means a market has been trending higher for a sustained period of time, or has already seen a quick, powerful move that could mean a "correction" is near. An 8 or higher bull market is likely a more mature one -- with the risks being higher for steeper setbacks and a more volatile topping process.
Similarly, a market rated as very bearish (2 or below) does not indicate you should rush out to establish a fresh short position and sell a market. It means a market has likely been in a longer-term downtrend, or has seen a quick and powerful down-move, and is at or near its contract low. It is a more mature bear market that has a higher risk of a corrective bounce higher, or even change in trend to sideways to higher.
Markets rated 4 to 6 are in the middle, and these are the markets I watch most closely, on a shorter-term basis, for trading opportunities. They are usually characterized by more of a "sideways" and choppier trading range on the daily chart, or have just backed well off from a recent up-trend high or have moved well up from a recent downtrend low.
Importantly, markets that have been in sideways trading ranges for a while -- i.e., non-trending and then move to either a rating of 5.5 to 6.5 on an upside price move, or to 4.5 to 3.5 on a downside move -- are the most critical to monitor on a daily chart basis. It's at these ratings levels that most trading "set ups" occur, based on my trading philosophy and experience. It's at these ratings which are just above or just below neutral (5) that most "breakouts" from trading ranges occur. But remember, the market has to have been trading generally (but not always) sideways beforehand, for the best trading opportunities to present themselves.
Being a conservative trader, I like to trade markets that are just beginning to establish a solid trend. The risk for high volatility (and bigger losses) is lower when a trend is in its early stages, as opposed to when a trend is mature and higher volatility is more likely. Wyckoff's Market Rating System helps me determine the stages of a market trend.
Here's an important reminder. My Wyckoff's Market Rating System is not and should not be used as a "stand-alone" trading system. But it can be a valuable trading tool in your "Trading Toolbox," along with a tool like
VantagePoint Trading Software. | |
About the Author

Jim Wyckoff is the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com, a Tampa Bay, Fla.-based financial social networking site, provides individual traders of all skill levels a one-stop destination for financial information and trading tools. TraderPlanet.com is the only financial social networking site that offers its members a full suite of market data feeds, advanced technical analysis tools and exclusive analyst commentary across asset classes, while enabling members to give back to the broader world community through gift-giving to charitable causes. Designed to level the playing field between institutional and individual traders, TraderPlanet.com's fully interactive, multi-media rich platform is designed to promote the free-flow exchange of ideas
through questions, answers and comments designed to improve trading strategies and investment performance.
Jim has spent nearly 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with what is now the Dow Jones Newswires service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Not long after he began his career in financial/commodity market journalism, Jim began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, Jim realized the playing field could be leveled between the "professional insiders" in the markets, and traders/analysts like
himself. As a proponent of Intermarket Analysis, VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software is one of the tools in Jim's tool-box. | |
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