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Trader's Tip

Before entering a trading position, first make the market move a bit in the direction you expect it to trade. This is a good filter and can eliminate potential losing trades.
- Jim Wyckoff | |
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Today's Featured Article

Hello again Fast Break readers. As always, it's my pleasure to be able to show you some of my latest research. In today's issue of Fast Break,
I'm showing you a portion of my "Daily Markets Update" comprehensive email report. Wyckoff's Market Rating System is based on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the most bearish market rating and 10 being the most bullish market rating. The number 5 would be a neutral rating. And it is not uncommon to see fractions used -- like 1.5, 3.5, etc. -- if conditions warrant.
Following are today's significant developments in selected U.S. futures markets.
LIVESTOCK: April live cattle closed down $0.72 at $86.10 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. There was no good follow-through buying strength today, following strong gains, Monday, and the cattle bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending lower from the summertime and autumn highs. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices above solid technical resistance at $88.30. The next downside technical objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $83.60. Trading livestock and want to know more about its related markets?
Go here. First resistance is seen at today's high of $86.55 and then at this week's high of $87.20. First support is seen at $86.00 and then at today's low of $85.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
April lean hogs closed up $0.42 at $62.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after dropping to another fresh contract low early on. Weaker cash hog prices today did limit the upside in the futures market. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to push prices above solid chart resistance at last week's high of $64.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $58.00. First resistance is seen at $62.50 and then at $63.00. First support is seen at $61.55 and
then at $61.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5. | |
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GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 8 3/4 cents at $3.61 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh seven-week low today. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence.
To receive a complimentary recent forecast for corn go here. Some more rains in Argentina, and more in the forecast, also pressured corn today. Bulls are worried about the onset of the seasonal "February break" phenomenon. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the November low of $3.52 1/4 a bushel. The bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3.85 3/4. First resistance for March corn is seen at $3.68 and then at today's high of $3.72 1/4. First support is seen at today's low of $3.56 and then at $3.52 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
March soybeans closed down 13 cents at $9.46 1/2 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit another fresh four-week low. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. Recent rains in Argentina and more rain chances in the forecast were again bearish for beans today. The onset of the seasonal "February break" phenomenon also has the bulls worried. The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices back above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $10.41 1/2 a bushel. The next
downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $9.00 a bushel. Trading soybeans and want to know more about its related markets? Go here. First resistance for March soybeans is seen at today's high of $9.62 3/4 and then at this week's high of $9.76 1/4. First support is seen at today's low of $9.34 1/2 and then at $9.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 12 cents at $5.51 3/4 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh downside momentum this week. Bulls are also worried about the onset of the "February break" seasonal phenomenon. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $5.15. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close March futures prices
above major psychological resistance at $6.00 a bushel. First resistance is seen at today's high of $5.69 1/2 and then at $5.80. First support lies at today's low of $5.51 and then at the January low of $5.48 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
SOFTS: March sugar closed down 4 points at 12.71 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh four-month high early on.
To receive a complimentary recent forecast for sugar go here. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. The sugar market is still in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 13.50 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 12.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 12.93 cents and then at today's high of 13.07 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 12.57 cents and then at 12.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
March coffee closed down 55 points at 119.20 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. Prices are still in a choppy two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls have faded recently. Coffee bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 123.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. Trading
coffee and want to know more about its related markets? Go here. First support is seen at today's low of 117.80 cents and then at this week's low of 117.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday's high of 120.50 cents and then at 122.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
March cocoa closed up $8 at $2,728 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. The cocoa bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $2,837. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,600. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,768 and then at $2,800. First support
is seen at today's low of $2,695 and then at this week's low of $2,670. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. | |
March cotton closed down 41 points at 49.30 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. To receive a complimentary recent forecast for cotton go here. Cotton bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage, but need to show more power soon. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below technical support at 48.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 52.40 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 50.20 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 48.69 cents and then at 48.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
March orange juice closed up 100 points at $.7235. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key "outside markets" were mostly bullish today -- firmer crude oil and a sharply lower U.S. dollar. However, gold prices were solidly lower to somewhat mitigate crude and the dollar's influence. FCOJ bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the contract low of $.6710. The next upside price objective for the OJ bulls is pushing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $.7625. Trading orange juice and want to know more about its related markets?
Go here. First resistance is seen at today's high of $.7380 and then at $.7500. First support is seen at this week's low of $.7075 and then at $.7000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
METALS: April gold futures closed down $14.50 at $892.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today on more profit-taking pressure from recent strong gains. No serious chart damage has occurred this week but the bulls are fading. A solidly weaker U.S. dollar today did not help out the gold bulls. However, prices are still in a choppy 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $875.70. Gold bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $931.30. First resistance is seen at $900.00 and then at today's high
of $914.30. Support is seen at today's low of $890.30 and then at $880.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
ENERGIES: March crude oil closed up $0.82 at $40.90 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high and were supported by short covering in a bear market. Firmer U.S. stock indexes today also supported crude oil. However, bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. To receive a complimentary recent forecast for crude oil go here. There are still no solid early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices remain in a 6.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below technical support at the contract low of $38.00. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $48.59 a barrel. First resistance is seen at $42.00 and then at $42.50. First support is seen at today's low of $39.65 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
March natural gas closed down 3.8 cents at $4.519 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage amid no early technical clues that a market low is close at hand. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.20. First resistance is seen at today's high of $4.728 and then at $4.833. First support is seen at today's low of $4.36 and then at the contract low of $4.28. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
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About the Author

Jim Wyckoff is the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com
. TraderPlanet.com, a Tampa Bay, Fla.-based financial social networking site, provides individual traders of all skill levels a one-stop destination for financial information and trading tools. TraderPlanet.com is the only financial social networking site that offers its members a full suite of market data feeds, advanced technical analysis tools and exclusive analyst commentary across asset classes, while enabling members to give back to the broader world community through gift-giving to charitable causes. Designed to level the playing field between institutional and individual traders, TraderPlanet.com's fully interactive, multi-media rich platform is designed to promote the free-flow
exchange of ideas through questions, answers and comments designed to improve trading strategies and investment performance.
Jim has spent nearly 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with what is now the Dow Jones Newswires service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Not long after he began his career in financial/commodity market journalism, Jim began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, Jim realized the playing field could be leveled between the "professional insiders" in the markets, and traders/analysts like
himself. As a proponent of Intermarket Analysis, VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software is one of the tools in Jim's tool-box. | |
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