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MARCH S&P e-MINI

DAILY CHART TREND: Lower into March 1-2.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower toward 640 and possibly lower into mid-April or July toward 540-550.

FUNDAMENTAL INSIGHTS: Our projection to 545 into the spring is very real as it would be book value for the S & P rather than 20 times earnings, which is over inflated. There has been no capitulation cycle as mutual funds have only fallen from about $5 trillion plus to about $3 trillion plus and that leaves a lot of room to fall. It's possible that it could take longer to reach this level.

LONGER-TERM PATTERNS: Patterns into late February or March 1 are projecting 732.50 or 696 for the retest of the November low. The chances of that are decreasing and would decrease more if the market can take out 786. We still expect lower prices but we think that March could be a congestion pattern 4th-wave triangle between 740-811 or so before an additional breakdown to new lows comes into April. There is still about a 45% chance of a new low into March 1.

SPRING/SUMMER WEEKLY CHART PATTERNS and CYCLES: (2/16) We should easily see a retest of the fall low toward 731 by March 1-2 at the least and then a choppy 78-point recovery and then lower prices to 650 and eventually to 540.

LONGER-TERM: (1/6) At the beginning of 2008, we predicted a drop to S & P 1000 and a fall of 33% on the stock market into the first few weeks of October. The market eventually fell 46% and the downside is not complete, as suggested by patterns. The general economic recession (if we are lucky to just get away with that) will easily affect us into at least into Oct. 2009 and possibly longer, and that could mean bear market basing and failed bear market rallies.

YEARLY OUTLOOK: (2/4) Overall for the year we are inclined to think that once the 5th-wave low is complete in April or July , that the market could generally go higher into November. We need to do more work on this but the Bradley Model may be inverting and we will watch 540 for and capitulation with fund liquidation happening before a more significant low is in. Traders expecting anything miraculous should be looking at the fact that until you get Mutual Fund redemption and capitulation, you are not going to have an end to this bear and it is naïve to think that it could be over this quickly.

LOOKING OUT TO 2009-2013: (5/27/08) There is a messy U.S. 7-year cycle that we last saw from 1889-1896 and it was a time when labor rose up and threw out the barons who were gouging them the previous seven years during the First Gilded Age when politicians and big business were in bed together -- sound familiar? (The New York Times recently called the last eight years the second Gilded Age). In 1893, there was a major bank crisis and the stock market dipped substantially. Also during the period banks gouged home owners with mortgages with extremely high interest rates and forced many into foreclosure. Will Bernanke and crew save us with their new subprime lending guidelines or will it tighten credit so much that many people will not get to refinance or buy homes? The years 2009-2016 will not be an easy time for the U.S. The stock market did manage to make important highs into the equivalent of May 2010 and 2011 and we think maybe it could return to the 1600 level by 2011. It was really the year 1893, i.e. 2013 where the stock market fell 45% so maybe the period from Oct. 2008-2011 will not be that bad for the stock market.

MARCH DOLLAR INDEX (electronic)

WEEKLY CHART: (2/18) The dollar is very close to a high with resistance at 8905, 8954 and 9050 with maybe a secondary high by March 2.

LONGER-TERM: The trend is up in the U.S. dollar into Feb. 2011 but there will be all kinds of swings this year. Once the dollar is finished to the upside in February, it could rally to 9614 or 10000 into spring or even as late as July after the March low. Once the T-note bubble bursts, I expect that the dollar will benefit, and there are some signs of that happening. Once the first 5 waves up is complete toward 9500 to 10000 then after a 3-wave pullback, possibly into November, we should see a 3rd-wave high that should be 2111 points from the pullback.

MONTHLY CHART OVERVIEW: The longer-term picture for the dollar suggests higher dollars into Feb. 2011 and from there we will start the big dollar crash into 2012 and 2013.

CHICAGO APRIL MINI-GOLD (electronic)

HOURLY CHART TREND: Topping.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 1034 into late February.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping at 1021 or higher and then lower into mid-April.
MONTHLY CHART TREND: Higher to 2400-3000 into 2012-13.

BIGGER PICTURE: (2/24) The market continues to confirm topping with the chances for 1024-32 diminishing quickly. Downside retracements suggest at least 920 and then 902 but lower prices are possible since the market has until the week of April 17 to bottom.

MONTHLY CHART TREND: (2/25) We think the dollar will become worthless into 2012-13 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000. This is not the time to do an entry on such a trade as the weekly chart is topping for now but it will continue to be a long-term investment.

XAU and GOLD STOCKS

(2/24) The XAU issued a more serious sell signal today and project 102.60 into the first week of April. There may be a secondary high by March 1-2 but gold stocks usually break before gold so it is the first telling sign. You always have to wait for the secondary high to sell.

APRIL e-mini CRUDE (electronic)

DAILY CHART TREND: Lower into March 1.
HOURLY CHART TREND: Topping and lower.

BIG PICTURE SYNTHESIS: (2/11) Inclined to expect $25 a barrel into the April cycle low. Market may then trade in a range between $28 and $45 before it can break out if the economy finally improves in 2010. Some international event could change everything but we need to do more research to zero in on such events. Looks like the same contango game will continue. The cycle low for the complex may not be due until the week of March 2-6 when the oil stock index is due to bottom. We often see a seasonal upswing between March 5-18 for crude so that may be the case for a bounce but we think the weak economy will continue to weigh on the market. Latest cycle low target for a 3rd wave lower is 2747 but computer models are starting to suggest 1860. We doubt that is possible but there is no buy setting up until mid-April.

(XOI) OIL STOCKS

(2/17) Oil stocks could plunge to 800 or 765 into March 1 if we are correct about lower US stocks into that time window and the downtrend in oil continues into April.

For the past 21 years, Barry Rosen has been in the business of advising clients on market timing using modern adaptations to certain ancient cycles. His company Fortucast Market Timing Inc. publishes daily and intraday reports on over 20 futures markets, and mutual fund indices/ETFs using Gann, Elliott wave and five cyclical models. Barry predicted the July 15, 2008 low on the S & P to the day, hitting the price within .75 ticks -- and in fact has been forecasting a major break in the stock market of about 33% since January. Timer Digest ranked the Fortucast Alternative Investment Newsletter 6th in long-term timers over the years and 5th for Top Ten Timers between March 2007 and March 2008.

Mr. Rosen is registered with the NFA and the CFTC as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Fortucast uses proprietary cyclical timing models to filter out false indicators. His opinions on the markets are his own and do not necessarily represent the view of FutureSource. For more information about Mr. Rosen or his company, please visit his company's website: www.fortucast.com.

Sign up to get Barry Rosen's Best Trades, including long-term trends and best trades of the year, for 13 financial futures as they set up. You will also receive information on how to get other complimentary reports from this author, including his coverage of agricultural markets and mutual funds/ETFs. Don't miss out, get the complimentary report today.