Ninja - Zen Fire - Phoenix: A Winning Combination

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JUNE S&P e-MINI

HOURLY CHART TREND: Topping toward 871 or 882.50
DAILY CHART TREND: Topping ad lower into May 8.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher into the fall toward 1060.
 
OVERALL: The S & P almost retested last Friday's high after early losses on the week. We are inclined to expect a lot of congestion over the next few weeks with the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, the employment report on May 8 and the bank audit results on May 4 or later. The FED has already said they would come to the rescue of the banks that are not up to par. Wall Street leaks of bail out again for BOA and CITIBANK is not good news. We think the Swine Flu scare will fizzle because it is really not that virulent but it may be 2-3 weeks before the public gets the sense that people are not dying from it unless they have weak systems. At the moment, the market could start a deeper correction from 882 to 750 or lower into May 8 but the market is going to have to take out 819 to turn bearish and that could happen. After a correction into May 8, one the upside we are looking at 905.75 and 943 and the major cycle is still positive into May 29.

SWINE FLU ECONOMIC NOTES: The World Health Organization said a full-borne pandemic could decrease GDP by 4.8% worldwide due to loss of productivity and travel. We had been more concerned about after Sept. 2009 and specifically between Jan-March 2010. Either the current outbreak will not escalate and affect the U.S. as badly as other countries or we will see something else along these lines into the early part of next year. Probably it will not turn out as virulent as expected as the Mexican deaths may be a fluke do to poor care and weak immune systems.

LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY: The trade may enter a bit of congestion before the April 29 FED announcement. The market is often lower into the end of the month and then short-covering for 401k money and window dressing may happen. At best we see congestion between 820-882 and at worse with a move to 750 having about a 10% chance into May 8. The cycle between April 23-May 8 has about a 95% correlation with at least congestive but more often lower moves. We still think new highs to 903 or better will happen into the end of May.

NEAR TERM: (4/28) The possibility for higher prices is still there into the FOMC meeting but we think 882.50 is the worse upside before another break. The market really needs to take out 819 (ie 823 plus slippage) to create a stir and given some of the current cycles and the bad cycle for banks and the generally bad economic cycle into May 8, surprise bad news is more likely than anything. Since the major cycle is strong into May 29, if the market congests above 790-800 into May 8 or even goes lower, then it could take off to 905.75 or 943 into early June thereafter. Higher prices are possible as very bullish cycle into May 28-30 for crude could lift stocks even more if that connection happens. There are still chances for 882 if they somehow celebrate the FED meeting announcement. Not sure what more they can do after throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the market last time.

CYCLE NOTES: (4/21) We did new research at the conference and think that the first few weeks of June is topping and that lower action could happen until August 7 and then a slight new high into September or max. early October and then major downward action into November. The market may be sideways the spring of 2010 and then do a final leap into early May for a new high and then be sharply lower into Dec. 2010.

MULTI-YEAR CYCLES: (4/21) 2009-2017: We did new research at the conference and think that the first few weeks of June is topping and that lower action could happen until August 7 and then a slight new high into September or max. early October and then major downward action into November. The market may be sideways the spring of 2010 and then do a final leap into early May for a new high and then be sharply lower into Dec. 2010.

For 2010: Cycle highs peak into May 2010 and then fall sharply into late Nov. 2010. They recover into August 2011 and fall off into Dec. 2011. The year 2011 seems sideways to lower but could end up dropping much more significantly if we are correct about the dollar falling sharply. The biggest crash appears to happen until Dec. 2012-July 2013, and that coincides with the 1993 banking crisis in the 120-year cycle. We see a recovery into August 2015 and then new lows to 2016 and April 2017 before the bear market is over. Folks who were trading from 1966-82 can remember that you can have 18-20 years of congestion at times. The mess we are in will go deeper than the 30's depression by the time we get to 2013-16. The good news is that a new economic system will come out of all of this.

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JUNE NASDAQ e-MINI FUTURES

NEAR TERM: (4/29) NASDAQ futures made a slight new high again and is closer to 1388 while the S & P continues to fail and that is a typical topping divergence scenario. We would not attempt to top-pick while the S & P failed and that was an important divergence. Resistance on NASDAQ is at 1388 and when it finally breaks out after congestion, we are likely to see 1443 into later in May.

CHICAGO JUNE MINI-GOLD (electronic)

HOURLY CHART TREND: Topping and lower.
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower into May 8.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Fourth-wave retracement to min. 820 into July cycle low.
MONTHLY CHART TREND: Lower into Feb. 2011 and then higher to 2400-3000 into 2012-13.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into May 8.

NEAR TERM: (4/29) Gold is still in a tricky position. One would think that the break in silver will bleed into gold. We still are thinking that gold has a chance to reach up to 922-24 and we are still remembering that gold went up in the spring of 2002 with the SARS scare. Still, linear cycles and geocosmic cycles are lower into May 8 so we should focus on a fall to 850 quickly and then 819 and 778 soon.

OVERALL: Extended upside is toward 935.50 and 949.90 should we see a breakout above 925. We are more inclined to expect 850 and 819 first.

BIG PICTURE: (4/24) At the moment we are inclined to think that gold will make a cycle low into May 8 and then be higher from there. Some gold cycles then suggest a high into the week of June 8-12 but we will need to take one step at time. At some point we may see 820 or 800 or 796 but that could even take until early August.

MONTHLY CHART TREND: (2/24) We think the dollar will become worthless into 2012-3 and that gold will become king again. Prices project 2400-3000. This is not the time to do an entry on such a trade, as the weekly chart is topping for now, but it will continue to be a long-term investment and seasonally you want to buy in July or mid-August.

JUNE e-mini CRUDE (electronic)

DAILY CHART TREND: Lower toward 4146 into May 8.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher into May 27-30.

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: (4/22) Recent DOE reports remind us that crude belongs closer to $40 or in the high 30's and that with a 5-6 million barrel surplus per day and stocks are 16-year record highs, even a Middle East war is not going to have the impact that it would have had a year ago.

OVERALL: We do think that crude will take off from early May into the end of the month but until then it could even congest between 42.00 and 56.00.

LONGER-TERM ENERGY CYCLES: (4/13) Some cycles for the whole complex are even suggesting higher prices into the last week of May and we are sure of that now and expect there is no time left for shorts. We are even postulating a May 2010 high and a Dec. 2010.

BIG PICTURE: (4/21) Crude is likely to hit 70-75 dollars July and then looks lower into August and higher into October. The cycle that caused the June 2008 high is repeating into Oct. 9, 2010. I do not think traditional economic woes will cause that to happen.

For the past 21 years, Barry Rosen has been in the business of advising clients on market timing using modern adaptations to certain ancient cycles. His company Fortucast Market Timing Inc. publishes daily and intraday reports on over 20 futures markets, and mutual fund indices/ETFs using Gann, Elliott wave and five cyclical models. Barry predicted the July 15, 2008 low on the S & P to the day, hitting the price within .75 ticks -- and in fact has been forecasting a major break in the stock market of about 33% since January. Timer Digest ranked the Fortucast Alternative Investment Newsletter 6th in long-term timers over the years and 5th for Top Ten Timers between March 2007 and March 2008.

Mr. Rosen is registered with the NFA and the CFTC as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Fortucast uses proprietary cyclical timing models to filter out false indicators. His opinions on the markets are his own and do not necessarily represent the view of FutureSource. For more information about Mr. Rosen or his company, please visit his company's website: www.fortucast.com.

Sign up to get Barry Rosen's Best Trades, including long-term trends and best trades of the year, for 13 financial futures as they set up. You will also receive information on how to get other complimentary reports from this author, including his coverage of agricultural markets and mutual funds/ETFs. Don't miss out, get the complimentary report today.