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What everyone thinks they "know" is usually not worth knowing when it comes to markets.
- Darrell Jobman |
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Today's Featured Article

Traders always operate in an environment of uncertainty. Even when they "know" something will happen or they think they have a market figured out, the market usually does its best to take twists and turns that keep most people from participating in a price move.
That has been the nature of markets for many years, but the current climate has probably produced more diametrically opposed views than ever - stocks are in a new bull market/stocks are only in a bear market correction, oil prices will never recover/crude oil will reach $200 a barrel, economic recession/economic recovery, strong dollar/weak dollar, inflation/deflation . . . You can get some very plausible arguments for either case.
VantagePoint, a trading tool, gives you highly accurate predictive information reflecting the intermarket dynamics that drive today's financial markets.
Although no one knows exactly what will happen, let's start with what we do know. If your town is like my town, you were amazed as McMansions were built and housing developments sprang up on the outskirts of town from roughly 2002 to 2007. Who could afford to buy these homes, and where did the money come from to finance them? Tsk, tsk, you "knew" it couldn't last. Meanwhile, lots of people made lots of money while you sat on your hands - or maybe got into the game late. Just like the technology stocks bubble of the late 1990s.
Now, we know, of course, that seldom has so much money been created out of so much air with so little substance with so much greed and so little responsibility. No one seemed to recall the Japanese bubble or the farmland or savings and loans debacles of the 1980s or other recent examples of real estate exuberance. Now, there is no doubt that we are in an ongoing credit crisis and financial crisis unlike anything most of us have experienced in our lifetimes - a generation-shaping event like the Great Depression and World War II. |
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To deal with the financial crisis, everyone knows the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have created billions of dollars out of thin air and pumped up banks and insurance companies and automakers and many other areas of the economy with those billions of dollars in stimulus and bailout programs. Furthermore, other nations are being forced to make similar stimulus efforts.
VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software gives you the information you need - when you need it - so you can gain an early edge in forecasting market trends that can dramatically improve your trading performance.
Everyone knows that so many new dollars and such reckless spending will lead to higher inflation rates. Well, we don't really know that yet. But for anyone who can connect the dots, it seems like a logical outcome.
Actually, inflation is already occurring if you accept that the meaning of the word is an increase in the supply of money relative to the supply of goods and services. The Federal Reserve has nearly tripled the amount of credit since last September - new "money" injected into the financial system via various lending programs - and who knows how many bailout and economic stimulus dollars have already flowed out. . . with more on the way? We are no longer talking about billions but trillions of dollars in the biggest expansion of credit/money that the world has ever seen.
The effect of inflation is usually rising prices of goods and services and interest rates and weakening in the value of the currency being expanded and diluted - what many people describe as inflation. So far, that effect really hasn't been noticed or acknowledged with housing prices remaining in a slump, auto makers and other companies going bankrupt, factories being idled or downsized, jobs being lost and unemployment rising, shopping malls and other commercial real estate in danger of default . . . In short, it seems like a very un-inflationary time.
But it seems inevitable that the consequences of the massive increase in money and credit are on the way. Just as visionary traders might have positioned themselves for the collapse of the commodities bubble in the 1970s and again in 2008, the interest rate surge of the early 1980s, the dot.com bubble of the late 1990s or the housing bubble of the 2000s, it seems like it's time for traders to anticipate and prepare for the next stage of economic history, an inflationary spiral that one can only hope will not escalate into hyperinflation. |
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The first signs of money/credit inflation may be taking place right now:
- The U.S. Dollar Index has given up everything it gained in the first two months of the year and has sunk to its lowest level in 2009, suggesting a continually weakening dollar that will have a bearing on many markets and place a greater emphasis on the value of
intermarket analysis.
- Crude oil prices have surged above $60 a barrel, gaining more than 30% in just the last month as the U.S. "driving season" is beginning.
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Bond futures are on a downward track, reaching the lowest levels since last November, meaning interest rates are moving higher as might be expected in an inflationary environment.
- Prices for gold, everyone's favorite inflation hedge, have advanced about 9% in May.
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China's imports of crude oil increased 14% in April, and China has also been credited with being the impetus behind this year's rise in copper and base metals prices, gold, soybeans and other commodities. If you held as many U.S. dollars as China does in its reserves, where would you rather invest - paper dollars or hard assets if you are trying to stimulate your own economy?
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And don't overlook the fact that the two biggest factors that might contribute to higher inflation rates - stimulus spending and economic recovery - have not had much of an impact yet. Most of the huge economic stimulus amounts mentioned in the headlines have yet to reach their destinations, much less being spent on projects and materials that are intended to relieve the financial crisis. Economic recovery would add to upward price pressure, leading many analysts to think that higher inflation and lower dollar are inevitable.
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History is not on the side of the dollar. No country has ever been able to spend its way out of debt by just creating money out of thin air without doing major damage to the value of its currency.
Using neural network technology, technical analysis and intermarket analysis, VantagePoint finds hidden patterns and relationships between twenty-five related markets and a target market, an especially useful tool given today's global environment. No matter how convincing the argument for higher inflation rates and its accompanying effects might be, there is one big problem with that conclusion: What everyone "knows" is usually not worth knowing when it comes to markets. The deflationary undercurrent that has dominated markets in recent months will not be overcome easily.
Nevertheless, traders planning ahead can only look at odds and probabilities and they seem to be weighted in favor of higher inflation, higher prices and weaker paper currencies. And it appears time to become prepared for those influences. |
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About the Author

| Darrell Jobman
has been writing about financial markets for more than 35 years, covering all aspects of the trading industry. A decorated Vietnam War veteran; he was a newspaper farm editor and editor of several agricultural publications before becoming an editor of Futures Magazine for more than 15 years. He has written and/or edited more than a dozen books on trading including The Handbook for Technical Analysis. His passion is helping others succeed by learning the "dos and don'ts" of trading. |
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