|
Trader's Tip
|
Analyze the risk before ever looking at return. Successful money management should never be an afterthought it should be the first thought.
- McLean D. Giles |
|
Quotes & Charts
Quote Search:
Market Specific Links:
Indices/Minis
Grains
Currencies/Forex
Financials
Food/Fiber/Softs
Metals
Energy
Meats
|
Special Message from Our Author
|
Discover a world of possibilities with the G-Force Market Report
The G-Force Market Report takes a comprehensive look at over 18 commodities and financial futures markets, including the Metals, Softs, Meats, Stocks, Currencies, Grains, and more. The publication is timely distributed Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday afternoons, and contains technical and fundamental analysis of the markets, along with detailed charts and specific trade recommendations for both long- and short-term traders.
Sign up for a COMPLIMENTARY trial today!
|
|
Today's Featured Article
Metals: Gold & Silver
The December "Z" Gold finished $17.90 higher to $1,164.70 per ounce, and the December "Z" Silver finished 17 cents higher to $18.610 per ounce today.
The weak U.S. Dollar carried Gold to a new record again on Monday. This U.S. Dollar weakness came after Federal Reserve Official James Bullard said the Central Bank should continue to buy mortgage-backed securities after the program is currently scheduled to expire in March. This would help keep U.S. interest rates low, further pressuring the dollar.
GC:
Mid-term we continue to remain bullish on Gold, projecting up to the $1,200.00 level we have continued to write about. A pullback would still be considered a buying opportunity. For those speculating with a futures contract, today's close above $1,154.00 does warn for blow-off rallies up to $1,190.00, provided the market does not close below $1,134.00 from here. Only a close below $1,106.00 will void the mid-term bullish formation and project down to the $1,080.00 zone.
SI:
Mid-term we remain bullish on Silver projecting up to $19.000. From here, a pullback to $17.900 would be a buying opportunity. Only a close below $17.200 will void the near-term bullish forces.
New Trade Recommendations: -
Open Trade Recommendations:
11/17/09: (Calendar Call Spread) Long the GCJ10 $1,175 Call and Short the GCG10 $1,200 Call for a debit of $2,650. | {Margin= $2,700. Establish the spread for a debit of $2,650 (265 points) with the objective of closing the spread when it widens to a debit of $3,400 (340 points). The objective could potentially be achieved in 53 days, by January 9th, provided the February Gold futures rally to around $1,180.00. Close the spread for a loss if the February Gold futures decline below $1,106.00.}
11/17/09: (Bull Put Spread) Long the SIF10 $16.00 Put and Short the SIF10 $17.00 Put for a credit of $870. | {Margin= $2,000. Establish the spread for a credit of $870 (17.4 cents) with the objective of closing the spread when it narrows to a credit of $50 (1 cent). The objective could potentially be achieved in 32 days, by December 19th, provided the March Silver futures remain at their current level, $18.00 or higher. Close the spread for a loss if the March Silver futures decline below $17.640.}
 If you cannot view the Gold Chart,
go here.
Debt: 10-Year Note & Eurodollar
The December "Z" 10-Year Note settled 2 ticks higher to 119-20, and the December "Z" Eurodollar settled 1/4 higher, finishing to 99.73 3/4 today.
Interest rates on 6-Month Treasurys hit their lowest level on record and 3-Month Bills their lowest point in 11 months on Monday. The decline is a welcome sight for the government in their effort to hold down borrowing costs. The key will be in this week's debt offerings coming in the form of 2, 5, and 7-Year Notes which the Treasury Department will be auctioning off to the tune of $118 billion. Strong to steady demand, as we saw today, will lead to a higher 10-Year Note trade, and falling demand will pressure interest rates higher and the 10-Year Note lower.
TY:
Today's trade was again bullish for the Note. Provided the market can continue to close above 119-12, we should see the Debt market push up to the 121-00 level in the next two weeks. Only a close below 118-18 will void the near-term bullish trend.
ED: As for the Eurodollar, the market continues to remain bullish, targeting 99.80. Only a close below 99.71 will void this bullish formation.
New Trade Recommendations: -
Open Trade Recommendations:
11/17/09: (Futures) Long the TYZ9 from 119-13, Stop- 118-20, Target- TBD. | {Move the protective stop up to 118-20, reducing the risk to 24 ticks.}
10/12/09: (Futures) Long the EDZ9 from 99.64, Stop- 99.72, Target- 99.80. | {Move the protective stop up to 99.72, locking in 8 points.}
 If you cannot view the 10-Year Note Chart, go here. |
|
Stocks: S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average
The December "Z" S&P 500 settled 13.70 points higher to 1,103.80, and the December "Z" Dow Jones settled 119 points higher to 10,422 today.
The National Association of Realtors reported that October Home Sales rose more than 10 percent on Monday. This boost revived investors' optimism after disappointing data on the housing industry last week raised concerns about the strength of the economic recovery. Additionally, Charles Evans, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, was quoted as saying he saw little risk that the economy would slide back into recession, although unemployment is unlikely to fall until next summer.
SP:
Our 1,092.00 buy-level we wrote about last Friday provided to be dead on the money as the market traded up to 1,111.40 today! From here, we see this market higher through year-end and pullbacks should be bought. Mid-term we are projecting this market up to 1,240.00. Only a close below 1,080.00 will void the near-term bullish forces.
DJ: We commented last week that a close above 10,360 would transition this market to the bull camp. Well that has now kicked in and, similar to the S&P above, pullbacks should be bought. Only a close below 10,050 will void the bullish trend.
New Trade Recommendations: -
Open Trade Recommendations: -
 If you cannot view the S&P 500 Chart,
go here.
Currencies: Euro Currency & Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar
The December "Z" Euro Currency settled 117 points higher to $1.4972, the December "Z" Australian Dollar settled 110 points higher to $0.9231, and the December "Z" Canadian Dollar settled 141 points higher to $0.9475 today.
Statistics in Canada reported that Retail Sales totaled 34.9 billion Canadian Dollars in September, which was up 1.0 percent on the month and marked the seventh gain in nine months. Over in Europe, their Composite Index of Manufacturing and Services increased from 53.0 to 53.7 in November, the highest level in two years.
EC: The Euro continues to consolidate on the daily chart. Technically, today's close above $1.4930 is again bullish for the currency, projecting up to $1.5025. Only a close below $1.4750 will void the bullish forces and push this market back to the bear camp.
AD:
Technically, a close above $0.9320 is bullish for the currency, projecting up to $0.9400. Only a close below $0.9000 will void the near-term bullish forces.
CD: Technically, a close above $0.9500 is bullish for the currency, projecting up to $0.9620. Only a close below $0.9350 will void the near-term bullish forces and begin to transition this market back to the bear camp.
New Trade Recommendations:
11/23/09: (Futures) Buy the CDZ9 at $0.9400 or better; should this order be filled, place a protective stop under $0.9300.
11/23/09: (Futures) Buy the ECZ9 at $1.4875 or better; should this order be filled, place a protective stop under $1.4750.
11/23/09: (Futures) Buy the ADZ9 at $0.9150 or better; should this order be filled, place a protective stop under $0.9040.
11/17/09: (Futures) Buy the ADZ9 at $0.9350 on a stop; should this order be filled, place a protective stop at $0.9200. | {Unfilled, replace with the order from 11/23/09.}
Open Trade Recommendations:
11/17/09: (Futures) Long the ECZ9 from $1.4950, Stop- $1.4800, Target- TBD. | {Exited at $1.4800.}
 If you cannot view the AU Dollar Chart,
go here.
Energy: Crude Oil
The January "F" Crude Oil closed $0.09 higher to $77.56 per barrel today.
Dollar weakness pushed Crude higher in the early morning, but was just not enough to sustain the higher trade on Monday. Additionally, global tensions with Iran were also supportive for the market. Concerns ignited over possible disruptions to Oil supply from the Middle East Gulf as Iran began military exercise over the weekend, and launched a 5-day air-defense exercise to show its military strength.
CL:
Crude's constant sideways to lower pattern continues to consolidate on the daily and weekly charts, which is beginning to look very enticing for a breakout trade. However, the market could go in either direction. Most traders can make a very valid fundamental argument for both higher or lower Crude over the next few months. But the key to catching this trade will be on the weekly basis. Technically, a close under $75.40 is bearish for this market, projecting down to $70.00 initially. However, a close back above $81.30 will project higher up over $86.00 initially.
New Trade Recommendations: -
Open Trade Recommendations: -
 If you cannot view the Crude Oil Chart,
go here. |
|
Softs: Sugar & Cocoa & Coffee
The March "H" Sugar settled 35 points lower to 22.14 cents per pound, the March "H" Cocoa settled $12 lower to $3,293 per metric ton today, and the March "H" Coffee settled 155 points higher to 137.40 cents per pound.
SB:
Technically, a close above 23.30 is again bullish for this market, projecting up to 24.00 where a close above this level starts to really push this market to the bull camp. Only a close below 22.00 will void the near-term bullish trend, and project down to the 21.00 level.
CC: We finally got the close above $3,250 we have been writing about. This now projects up to $3,400 for the market. Only, a close below $3,200 will void the near-term bullish forces and further project this market down to $3,050.
KC:
From here, a close above 140.00 is again bullish for the market, projecting up to 147.00. Only a close below 132.00 will void the near-term bullish trend and project this market down to 125.00.
New Trade Recommendations: -
Open Trade Recommendations:
11/17/09: (Futures) Long the KCH10 from 140.50, Stop- 133.00, Target- TBD.
11/12/09: (Futures) Long the SBH10 from 23.50, Stop- 22.00, Target- TBD
 If you cannot view the Coffee Chart,
go here.
Livestock: Live Cattle & Lean Hogs
The February "G" Live Cattle finished 20 points lower to 85.62 1/2 cents per pound, and the February "G" Lean Hogs finished 115 points higher to 65.52 1/2 cents per pound today.
LC:
Look for a close above 86.00 to project this market higher up to the 87.50 level. Only a close below 84.25 will void the near-term bullish forces.
LH: We are still looking for a pullback down towards 62.00 to trigger another buying opportunity. Only a close below 58.50 will fully turn this market back to the bear camp, projecting down to 54.00.
New Trade Recommendations:
11/23/09: (Futures) Buy the LHG10 at 62.00 or better; should this order be filled, place a protective stop below 60.00.
11/16/09: (Futures) Buy the LCG10 at 86.00 on a stop; should this order be filled, place a protective stop below 84.20.
Open Trade Recommendations: -
 If you cannot view the Live Cattle Chart, go here.
Grains: Corn & Soybeans & Wheat
The March "H" Corn closed 3 3/4 cents lower, finishing to $4.03 3/4 per bushel, the January "F" Soybeans were 4 cents lower, finishing to $10.42 per bushel, and the March "H" Wheat was 2 1/4 cents lower, finishing to $5.80 per bushel today.
After the close, the USDA reported that: 68 percent of the Corn crop was harvested, down from the 5-year average of 94 percent; 94 percent of the Soybean crop was harvested, down from the 5-year average of 97 percent; and 93 percent of the Winter Wheat crop was planted with 64 percent of it rated good-to-excellent.
C:
Corn is a buy right here near the $4.00 level. Only a close below $3.72 will void the mid-term bullish forces. For further confirmation, a close above $4.20 is again bullish for the market, projecting up to $4.37. Additionally, for those still in the Corn spread below, we will be taking profits on this spread no later than 11/27/09.
S: A pullback near the $10.25-$10.10 level will be seen as a buying opportunity. Only a close below $10.00 will negate the near-term bullish forces and transition this market back to the bear camp targeting $9.60.
W:
Wheat has moved to the bull camp near-term. Small pullbacks to the $5.80 level should be considered buying opportunities. Only a close below $5.60 will void the near-term bullish forces and transition this market back to the bear camp.
New Trade Recommendations: -
Open Trade Recommendations:
11/19/09: (Futures) Long the WH10 from $5.78, Stop- $5.60, Target- TBD.
11/17/09: (Futures) Long the CH10 from $4.20, Stop- $3.97, Target- TBD.
07/13/09: (Futures Spread) Long the CZ9 and Short the CZ10 from 49 cents (to the sell side). | {Margin = $270. The margin is low on this spread, but keep in mind these are futures contracts, where every penny = $50. To adequately give this spread some room to work, we will risk around 10-15 cents.} {Take profits on this spread no later than11/27/09.}
 If you cannot view the Corn Chart, go here.
|
|
About the Author
|
Mr. Giles is the president of G-Force Trading, LLC. He was previously part of the Global Wealth Management Group at Morgan Stanley and received his degree in finance from the University of Colorado at Boulder. G-Force Trading, LLC provides a wide range of services and trading tools while maintaining the specialization of a smaller firm, offering full-service accounts, managed futures accounts, and even discounted trading to self-directed traders. The firm publishes the
G-Force Market Report
three times a week, covering over 18 commodities and financial futures markets. Mr. Giles works with clients of all sizes to help them reduce their risk and practice good money management. G-Force Trading, LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commissions ("CFTC") as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association ("NFA") and clears trades through MF Global Inc. For more information, please visit www.GForceTrading.com.
|
|
Special Message from Our Author
|
Discover a world of possibilities with the G-Force Market Report
The G-Force Market Report takes a comprehensive look at over 18 commodities and financial futures markets, including the Metals, Softs, Meats, Stocks, Currencies, Grains, and more. The publication is timely distributed Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday afternoons, and contains technical and fundamental analysis of the markets, along with detailed charts and specific trade recommendations for both long- and short-term traders.
Sign up for a COMPLIMENTARY trial today!
|
|
|
