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It's a pleasure to show you some of my recent work. It's my goal that after reading my Fast Break analysis you will take away at least one valuable "nugget" to improve and enhance your own trading plan of action. Today I'm going to show my latest bi-weekly newsletter from Dec. 17, in which I take a longer-term perspective on selected key markets.

Remember that it's important for traders to keep a close eye on the key "outside markets" that have been impacting so many other markets recently. Those markets are the U.S. dollar index, crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock indexes. This phenomenon, "Intermarket" analysis, is an analytical approach perfected by my friend and pioneer software developer Louis Mendelsohn.

U.S. Dollar Index: This index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback and rolled into one composite price index. It's an excellent barometer of the overall health of the U.S. currency compared to the other major currencies of the world. Note the weekly continuation chart for nearby U.S. dollar-index futures. Recent price action has pushed above and negated a solid downtrend line that had been in place for nine months. Note, as well, at the bottom of the weekly chart for the U.S. dollar index that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has recently produced a bullish line crossover signal, whereby the thick blue MACD line crossed above the thin red "trigger" line of the indicator. This is the first bullish MACD signal given on the weekly chart since May of 2008. In July of 2008, the dollar index began a major rally.

U.S. T-Bonds : Recently, the bond market bulls have lost upside technical momentum as downtrends are now in place on the daily charts. Note the weekly continuation chart for nearby U.S. Treasury-bond futures. A bearish double-top reversal pattern may be playing out, as prices have backed down from the December high. Note also, at the bottom of the weekly chart for T-Bonds that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is poised to produce a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the thick, blue MACD line crosses below the thin, red "trigger" line of the indicator. This would be the first bearish MACD line crossover signal given on the weekly chart since late January of 2009. While T-Bonds and T-Notes will remain sought after during times of keen economic and geopolitical uncertainty, it does appear at present the risk appetite among investors worldwide has increased, which is an underlying bearish factor for U.S. Treasuries.

Continuous Commodity Index : The CCI is a basket of 17 major commodity futures markets rolled into one composite index. It's an excellent barometer for the overall trend in commodity markets. The weekly CCI chart shows a solid price uptrend remains in place, despite some recent price weakness in major commodity markets like gold and crude oil. The staunch commodity market bulls are presently arguing price weakness in some commodities is mainly due to large speculative fund players taking profits at the end of the year, after having booked solid gains on the long side of commodity futures markets during most of 2009. These bulls are looking for a new influx of fund money coming into the raw commodity futures markets, on the long side, beginning in January. For more information on commodity futures and its related markets go here.

Crude Oil : The daily chart for nearby Nymex crude-oil futures shows significant near-term chart damage. January crude-oil futures fell this week to a fresh nine-week low of $68.59 a barrel. Technically, January crude prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, falling from the late-October high of $82.58 a barrel. During the month of December, the price downtrend in crude-oil prices has accelerated. Note the weekly continuation chart for nearby crude-oil futures. Recent price action has penetrated on the downside of a 10-month-old uptrend line. Note also, at the bottom of the weekly chart for crude oil that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has recently produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the thick, blue MACD line crossed below the thin, red "trigger" line of the indicator. This would be the first solid bearish MACD line crossover signal given on the weekly chart since July of 2008, which was the beginning of a major bear market decline in crude oil futures prices. Go here to see a recent market forecast for crude oil.

Gold : February gold futures on the Comex Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped to a fresh four-week low of $1,110.20 an ounce last week. This did produce some near-term technical damage. However, the weekly continuation chart for nearby gold futures shows a solid price uptrend is still in place and no longer-term chart damage has occurred. Gold and crude-oil futures traders will continue to monitor closely the value of the U.S. dollar against the other major currencies, via the U.S. dollar index. If the dollar index continues to recover from its recent lows, then upside price movements in gold and crude oil will be limited. However, if the dollar index embarks upon a fresh leg down in price, including a fresh contract low, then gold and crude-futures prices would likely see strong, renewed buying interest.

 
Corn : Note the weekly continuation chart for nearby corn futures. Prices have been trading in a sideways range for two months. The direction in which nearby corn futures prices "break out" of the trading range, which is bound by the technical support and resistance levels seen on the chart, will very likely be the direction of the next significant trend in corn-futures prices.

Soybeans: The weekly continuation chart for nearby soybean futures shows a fledgling uptrend line is in place from the harvest lows this fall. It will take a push in nearby soybean-futures prices above major psychological resistance at $11 to kick off a stronger bull market run in soybeans. If nearby soybean-futures prices do push and close above $11, bulls will gain stronger upside technical momentum and will immediately focus on pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance at the $12.00 level. Go here to see a recent market forecast for soybeans from VantagePoint -- the software that is up to 86% accurate* at forecasting market trends.

Chicago Wheat: The weekly chart for nearby Chicago soft-red, winter-wheat futures shows that a fledgling uptrend line was recently penetrated on the downside. The next longer-term downside technical objective for the wheat market bears is pushing nearby futures prices below major psychological support at $5 a bushel. It would take a price move in nearby Chicago wheat above psychological resistance at $6 a bushel to provide the bulls with longer-term technical strength, which might suggest much bigger price gains can be achieved.

Sugar : ICE Futures U.S. sugar for March delivery last Wednesday hit a fresh 3.5-month high of 26.15 cents. In less than one week's time, March sugar futures have rallied by over 350 points. Note the weekly continuation chart for nearby sugar futures. Prices have seen a bullish upside "breakout" from a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is another bullish longer-term technical clue. The all-time record high in nearby New York sugar futures is 65 cents a pound, scored in November of 1974. The only rally coming close to the 1974 record spike higher was in 1980, when nearby sugar futures hit a high of 44.8 cents a pound. History suggests the sugar futures market does have more room to run on the upside.

Jim Wyckoff has spent nearly 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with what is now the Dow Jones Newswires service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Not long after he began his career in financial/commodity market journalism, Jim began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, Jim realized the playing field could be leveled between the "professional insiders" in the markets, and traders/analysts like himself. As a proponent of Intermarket Analysis, VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software is one of the tools in Jim's tool-box.

Complimentary market forecasts and trading eBook!

You'll receive recent forecasts for the Futures markets, including gold, oil, the U.S. dollar and wheat. As a special bonus you'll also receive a copy of the Beginner's Guide to Futures Trading - without cost.

Go here to receive the forecasts and eBook Now.