|
Trader's Tip
Novice traders look for perfection whereas experienced traders look for performance.
- Joe Kellogg |
|
Quotes & Charts
Quote Search:
Market Specific Links:
Indices/Minis
Grains
Currencies/Forex
Financials
Food/Fiber/Softs
Metals
Energy
Meats
|
Special Message from Our Author
Today's Featured Article
December Dow Jones
- Dow Jones futures reached a new high and closed near the top of the daily range for the third day in a row. Although the market is currently trading on the weak side of the ascending median line, the underlying trend indicator remains bullish. This suggests there is enough momentum for the market to continue to climb into the next significant reversal swing date, due on January 14. You should continue to hold long positions, but be cautious as the market approaches the January 17 reversal swing day or the 10770 target objective.
 If you cannot view the Dow chart,
go here.
March Japanese Yen
- The yen traded below the prior swing low (1.0731 on January 4) and closed on the descending lower parallel support line. Friday's session open lower, but reversed and closed higher as a failed swing pattern. The rally continued on Monday, trading above Thursday's high of 1.0859. The yen completed the bearish reaction cycle it began on the November 30th reversal swing date, as it reached the lower reaction line target objective one day after the projected December 30 reversal swing date. The failed swing pattern suggests a trend shift is under way and the initial rally could see the market trade higher into the next reversal swing date due on January 13. I will wait to see if the
market completes the final segment of a bullish TR pattern and offers a significant buying opportunity. I will keep you updated in this report or in my blog.
 If you cannot view the Japanese Yen chart,
go here.
British Pound
- Long from 1.6075 - last price @ 1.6105 - The pound rose against the dollar for the third time in four days, on signs the global economic recovery is gathering momentum and a report showed U.K. businesses are more optimistic than a year ago. The British pound began to show signs of a trend shift after posting the two-month low on the December 30th reversal swing day. From this swing low, the British Pound staged a 400-point rally, during the next two days, before stalling at the 20-day SMA. The secondary test of the low failed and allowed the market to turn higher and complete the final segment of a bullish TR pattern. The reverse/forward count from the TR swing pattern projects
the next reversal swing date for January 26, with a target objective of 1.6700. Hold the long position, with a stop loss at 1.5920.
 If you cannot view the British Pound chart,
go here.
March Treasury Bonds
- Long from 115-27 - last price @ 115-08 - The market has failed to follow through on the peg-leg buy pattern on January 5. The T-Bonds did trade as an outside day, after Friday's Unemployment Report was released, but moved right back into the consolidation pattern on Monday. This could mean the market is due more one more break. Hold the long position and move the stop loss to 114-25.
 If you cannot view the T-Bonds chart,
go here.
In an active futures market, price patterns and signals are
constantly changing. Because of this volatility, changes to recommended market
positions can change intra-day. To learn more about intra-day changes sign up
for our booklet about the Swing Trading Phenomenon. |
|
March Corn
- Long from $4.18 1/2 - last price @ $4.22 1/2 - The Corn Production Report could finally provide a clear picture, because up until now, analysts have been unusually divided over crop size, due to the delayed harvest. On average, analysts believe the US Department of Agriculture will cut its estimate of American corn production, while others are predicting an increase in estimates. It is still estimated that 30% of North Dakota's crop is still in the field as of last week. Hold the long position, with the stop loss at $4.14.
 If you cannot view the Corn chart,
go here.
March Wheat
- Long from $5.55 1/2 - last price @ $5.72 1/2 - Wheat futures dropped to the lower parallel line support and reversed 1/4 cent above the suggested stop loss at $5.45. The Wheat had also tested the 20-day EMA with a "double cross" pattern before the Wheat began to rally into the close. This is a strong trend continuation pattern and suggests Wheat should continue to trade higher into the January 14 reversal swing day. The current target objective of $.5.97 remains in play. Hold the long position and move the stop loss to $5.57.
 If you cannot view the Wheat chart,
go here.
March Soybean Oil - The Bean oil has formed a bullish reaction swing at the upward sloping median line and old high. A trade above the high will confirm the reaction swing and trigger a run to the upper parallel reaction line. Buy the Bean oil at 40.45 stop, with a stop loss under the pivot low.
 If you cannot view the Soybean Oil chart,
go here.
February Gold
- Long from $1130.50 - last price @ $1151.60 - After trading below low of Thursday's "inside day", Gold hit solid support where the ascending parallel line and the 20-day EMA met. Gold used the convergence as a springboard to continue the upward trend that was triggered off the (C to D) reaction swing. Hold the long position and raise the stop loss to $1140.50, with a target objective at $1175.00. The next reversal date is due on January 14.
 If you cannot view the Gold chart,
go here.
February Crude Oil
- The two-week rally in Crude oil is overdue for a corrective pullback. Monday's failed swing pattern just may mark the beginning of the correction after Crude traded to a fresh 15-month high, but failed to find any new buyers and closed sharply lower. A reversal at this juncture could trigger a downside correction, possibly to 79.25, as it approaches the January 13 reversal swing date, where it would form a bullish 'setup" for a new long entry. If currently long, this would be a good place to tighten stops or close the long position.
 If you cannot view the Crude Oil chart,
go here.
March Sugar
- The prior long position was closed after Sugar reached the ascending median line target objective on the predicted January 6th reversal swing date. Since that day, Sugar has dropped over 180 and reached the 20- day SMA. I look for the market to find support near this level and possibly trade sideways into the January 14, reversal swing date. If this does happen, it will form a bullish reaction swing for a new bullish leg. I will keep you updated on any new signals on the daily update.
 If you cannot view the Sugar chart,
go here. Want to learn more about intra-day changes and swing trade
recommendations? Go here. |
|
REVERSAL DATES FOR THE WEEK of January 11-15, 2010
Monday -- Soybean, Silver, Dow Jones, Crude Oil
Tuesday -- Corn
Wednesday -- Cattle, Sugar
Thursday -- Soybean, N-Gas, Silver, Gold, Canadian Dollar
Friday -- Wheat, T-Bonds, Cocoa
If you have questions about swing trade recommendations, sign up for "The Scientific Trader," a 15-page electronic booklet about the Swing Trading Phenomenon. *Due to the volatility of the markets, all trade recommendations are subject to change without notice.
Swing trading and Reversal dates
Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful signal. Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method. That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade. The first thing I do is, identify Time.
TIME
The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts. The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true. Instead, The Reversal Date itself helps to identify the market's reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a "continuation pattern," indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this
will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.
PRICE
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.
PATTERN
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When, and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a trade signal generated.
Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Network's market research. Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned. It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT
ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES. |
|
About the Author
|
Joseph Kellogg started in the commodity business as a commercial grain merchandiser and basis trader. He was one of the architects of the Farm Marketing Program (FMP). This marketing plan was designed for agricultural businesses to use with grain options in strategies that could not only hedge their cash crops, but also aid in their marketing. He hosted "Futures Talk," a commodity talk radio program that aired bi-weekly on a Los Angeles radio station. Joseph has also developed many option writing strategies, which can be used with the reversal point method. |
|
Special Message from Our Author
|
