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Trader's Tip
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No matter your trading timeframe - be it an active intra-day trader or a longer-term position trader - you should examine longer-term weekly and monthly charts to gain that important bigger-picture perspective on markets.

- Jim Wyckoff

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VantagePoint

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January 26, 2010

Special Message from Our Author
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Take the guess-work out of your Futures trading equation and replace it with up to 86% accurate* market forecasts

VantagePoint is a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis, and leading indicators. Whether you're trading Softs, Meats, Energies, or Metals -- VantagePoint can anticipate, instead of reacting to trend changes.

Go here to see complimentary recent forecasts for 70+ Futures markets!

Today's Featured Article
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A Long-Term Perspective on Key Markets
By Jim Wyckoff

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About the Author

Hello Fast Break readers. It's always pleasure to show you some of my recent work. It's my goal that after reading my Fast Break analysis you will take away at least one valuable "nugget" to improve and enhance your own trading plan. Today, I'm going to show my latest bi-weekly newsletter from Jan. 21, in which I take a longer-term perspective on selected key markets.

Remember, as well, it's important for traders to keep a close eye on the key "outside markets" that have been impacting so many other markets in recent months. Those markets are the U.S. dollar index, crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock indexes. This phenomenon is called "intermarket analysis," an analytical approach perfected by my friend and pioneer software developer of VantagePoint, Louis Mendelsohn.

If you have any questions or comments, make sure to drop me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com. I answer all email messages in a timely fashion.

Continuous Commodity Index: The Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) is a basket of 17 major raw-commodity futures prices rolled into one composite index price. The CCI is an excellent barometer of the overall trend in raw commodity market prices, including grains and livestock futures. To see complimentary recent forecasts for these markets and more go here. As seen on the weekly CCI chart, the index has been trending higher since December of 2008, and in early January it hit a fresh 16-month high. Prices have since backed off in modest fashion, but the overall uptrend remains firmly in place. However, if the present downside correction in the CCI persists through the month of January, that would be one early technical clue that the CCI index has put in at least a near-term top. Recent downside price-action in the grains and crude-oil futures is a very early clue that this latest decline in the CCI could be something more serious than just a normal downside correction in an overall uptrend. Keep an extra close eye on the CCI index for the next two weeks.

CCI Chart
If you cannot view the CCI chart, go here.

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Crude Oil: Crude-oil futures prices have backed off from the recent high, as the bulls have faded a bit. However, the overall uptrend from the 2009 lows remains in place. It will take a move above the recent high of $83.95 in nearby crude-oil futures to provide the bulls with fresh upside technical momentum to suggest a fresh leg up in prices. A drop in nearby crude below solid support at the December low of $68.59 would produce some longer-term technical damage to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The crude-oil market is still closely tracking the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock market. If the dollar continues to strengthen or if the stock market sells off, crude-oil prices will then likely move lower. VantagePoint looks at 25 related markets when making up to 86% accurate* market forecasts for the crude oil market. Go here to see how.

Crude Oil Chart
If you cannot view the Crude Oil chart, go here.

On a shorter-term technical basis for crude-oil futures, note the VantagePoint daily chart for March crude-oil futures (CL H0). Prices are in a near-term bearish technical posture. The Predicted Medium Term Crossover study is in a bearish posture, as the predicted 4-day moving average is below the predicted 10-day moving average. Both lines are also trending lower, which is bearish. Note, also, at the bottom of the chart the Predicted Neural Index is in a bearish posture, with a reading of 0.0.

Crude Oil Chart2
If you cannot view the VantagePoint Crude Oil chart, go here.

U.S. Dollar Index: The dollar bulls have had upside success recently, and the U.S. dollar index hit a fresh four-month high this week. Note that on the weekly continuation chart for the nearby, U.S. dollar-index futures that a longer-term downtrend line has recently been negated, and a fledgling uptrend line is in place. Note, as well, at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is in a bullish posture as the thick blue MACD line has moved above the thin red "trigger" line. My bias is that the dollar index has put in a major low and that prices will trend sideways to higher during at least the first half of 2010.

Dollar Index Chart
If you cannot view the Dollar Index chart, go here.

Note the VantagePoint daily chart for the March U.S. dollar-index futures (DX H0). Prices are in a near-term bullish technical posture. The Predicted Medium Term Crossover study is in a bullish posture, as the predicted 4-day moving average is above the predicted 10-day moving average. Both lines are also trending higher, which is bullish. Note, as well, at the bottom of the chart that the Predicted MACD indicator is in a bullish posture, as the predicted MACD line is above the predicted "trigger" line of the indicator.

Dollar Index Chart2
If you cannot view the VantagePoint Dollar Index chart, go here.

Gold: The precious yellow metal has backed off this week as the U.S. dollar has seen significant strength. However, note the weekly continuation chart for nearby gold futures. Prices are still in an overall longer-term price uptrend, and no longer-term technical damage has been inflicted. If nearby gold futures prices do drop below longer-term technical support at $1,075, then that would begin to produce longer-term chart damage, which might suggest a major, market top is in place. Still, if I am a staunch gold-market bull, I have to be very worried near term about a strong rebound in the value of the U.S. dollar. A continued strengthening in the greenback would severely limit upside price potential in the gold market and could even spell the end of the major bull-market run in gold.

Gold Chart
If you cannot view the Gold chart, go here.

Note the VantagePoint daily chart for February Comex gold futures (GC G0). Prices are in a near-term bearish technical posture. The Predicted Medium Term Crossover study is in a bearish posture as the predicted 4-day moving average is below the predicted 10-day moving average. Both lines are also trending lower, which is bearish. Note, as well, at the bottom of the chart that the Predicted Neural Index is in a bearish posture with a reading of 0.0.

Gold Chart2
If you cannot view the VantagePoint Gold chart, go here.

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U.S. T-Bonds: Treasury-bond futures have seen a decent short-term rally in prices recently. On the daily chart, the rally looks impressive. On the weekly continuation chart for nearby U.S. T-Bond futures, the picture is different. The weekly chart suggests the recent rally is just a tepid short-covering bounce in a bear market. This is a good example of why it's prudent to examine longer-term charts to get that important bigger-picture perspective on markets. Legendary trader/analyst W.D. Gann said his favorite charts to study were the weekly charts.

T-Bonds Chart
If you cannot view the T-Bonds chart, go here.

Corn: The weekly continuation chart for nearby corn futures shows that recent price-action produced a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range. Now, the next downside price objective for the rejuvenated corn market bears is to push nearby futures prices below major longer-term technical support at $3.50 a bushel. It is my bias that if nearby corn futures prices drop to the $3.30 area, the market would then become a value-buying opportunity.

Corn Chart
If you cannot view the Corn chart, go here.

Soybeans: Longer-term chart damage has been inflicted in soybeans, as seen on the weekly continuation chart for nearby futures. An uptrend line has been soundly penetrated on the downside, and now the bears are eyeing longer-term chart support at the October 2009 low of $8.78 3/4 a bushel. It will take multiple closes back above major psychological resistance to provide the soybean market bulls with fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Fundamentally, soybean traders are now focusing more on the South American soybean crop, which is expected to be huge and maybe a new record high on total production. Go here to see a complimentary recent market forecast for soybeans.

Soybeans Chart
If you cannot view the Soybeans chart, go here.

Wheat: Nearby Chicago, soft-red, winter-wheat futures prices have this week dropped below major psychological support at $5.00 a bushel to produce more near-term and longer-term chart damage. Now, the bears are eyeing pushing prices to longer-term technical support at the 2008 low of $4.71, or below. Presently, traders deem the Worldwide supply and demand fundamentals for wheat bearish. It would take a push in nearby wheat prices back above major psychological resistance at $6.00 a bushel to rekindle good speculative buying interest in wheat futures.

Wheat Chart
If you cannot view the Wheat chart, go here.

Sugar: Nearby ICE sugar-futures this week pushed to a fresh 29-year high near 30 cents a pound. While prices are at multi-decade highs, they are nowhere near the all-time record high of 66 cents per pound scored in November of 1974. The technical signs are fully bullish for sugar, both on a longer-term and shorter-term basis. There are no solid early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand in the sugar-futures market.

Sugar Chart
If you cannot view the Sugar chart, go here.

About the Author
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Jim Wyckoff is the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com . TraderPlanet.com, a Tampa Bay, Fla.-based financial social networking site, provides individual traders of all skill levels a one-stop destination for financial information and trading tools. TraderPlanet.com is the only financial social networking site that offers its members a full suite of market data feeds, advanced technical analysis tools and exclusive analyst commentary across asset classes, while enabling members to give back to the broader world community through gift-giving to charitable causes. Designed to level the playing field between institutional and individual traders, TraderPlanet.com's fully interactive, multi-media rich platform is designed to promote the free-flow exchange of ideas through questions, answers and comments designed to improve trading strategies and investment performance.

Jim has spent nearly 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with what is now the Dow Jones Newswires service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Not long after he began his career in financial/commodity market journalism, Jim began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, Jim realized the playing field could be leveled between the "professional insiders" in the markets, and traders/analysts like himself. As a proponent of Intermarket Analysis, VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software is one of the tools in Jim's tool-box.

Special Message from Our Author
----------

Take the guess-work out of your Futures trading equation and replace it with up to 86% accurate* market forecasts

VantagePoint is a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis, and leading indicators. Whether you're trading Softs, Meats, Energies, or Metals -- VantagePoint can anticipate, instead of reacting to trend changes.

Go here to see complimentary recent forecasts for 70+ Futures markets!

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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.