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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide. Now you can get this highly sought after analysis with your daily research newsletter from Phil Flynn. Learn more about this complimentary offer and sign-up today.

The mood shift across the stocks and commodity markets were enough to wake a sleeping ground hog. Wake up you silly ground hog the market seems to sense a change! Gone is that sour and gloomy mood that was oh so January. February seems to have given the market some new life. What seemed to give us that sonic hedgehog boost? Well I guess you can say Exxon Mobil. Once again it seems that what is good for Exxon Mobil is good for America. When Exxon Mobil does well it seems America does well. When the economy was hitting on all cylinders and unemployment was at a record low those guys at Exxon Mobil were raking in those obscene profits. It was Exxon Mobil better than expected earnings seemed to set the stage for what turned out to be a pretty awesome day. Oh yes there was rising geopolitical issues with Nigerian rebels blowing up pipelines and increasing tensions with Iran but really at the end of the day it was that Exxon Mobil Magic that seemed to get the risk takers back in the market and off of the fence.

Those Exxon Mobil earnings set the stage for that awesome ISM Manufacturing number a number that normally is a forecast for future strong energy demand. The ISM blew away expectations surging to a monster 58.4% the highest level since August of 2004 raising hopes that energy demand will stay strong as factories step up production to meet that rising demand. It also sparked some inflation fears as well as the prices paid index hit 70% up from 61.5%. Those renewed inflationary feelings along with the perception that this number could improve the jobs outlook (the employment index component surged to 53.3% from 50.2%) gave the perception that perhaps that strong GDP number was not all smoke and mirrors and actually is showing that there is at least something happening in the real economy. You know the economy on so called Main Street. Plenty of good houses are still available. Warning some may have to have a ground hog removed.

Of course we have also removed some uncertainty with the reappointment last week of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Let me take a minute to sing a short ode to Ben.

Ben, behind your back you look no more, you found the votes that you were looking for. Instead of rent I now will own, I'll never pay the loan, and you my friend will see, my interest will be free you've got a friend in me.

Ben, you may have cut a deal here and there but you felt not wanted anywhere. If you ever look behind, and don't like what you find, there's one thing you should know, you can always print some dough (you've got a place to go).

The banks used to say "I" and "me", now it's "us", now it's "we". They used to say loan and fee then went bust, now it's freeze. Ben, some wanted you to go away, I don't listen to a word they say. They don't see you as I do, I wish they would try to. I'm sure they'd think again, if they had a friend like Ben (a friend), like Ben (like Ben), like Ben.

And why shouldn't commodity bulls get excited. This is that man that saved the commodity bull market. The man by printing money and throwing money down from the rooftops was a major factor in thwarted deflation and giving us inflation. If it weren't for Ben gold never would have made a record high and oil would probably be at $25.

Of course now it is economic good feelings that have saved the oil from a total breakdown. Oil held key support above 72 a barrel and if you use your imagination and allow for a bit of slippage we seemed to but in a minor double bottom around 7245 give or take a tick. Maybe a triple borrow even which also means that it should be tested again in the future. With oil back over $75 if we continue to see the stock market rally oil could make a run back towards $77. Long-term players we are still looking for a move back into the forties. Use this rally to try to put on bearish option strategies. Day traders and short-term traders we are in a long term wavy down trend and should give us the opportunity for some pretty wide swings.

Phil Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts. Phil provides up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

Phil and his energy team were one of the first to predict that global crude oil prices would exceed $30/barrel in the year 2000, a correctly predicted market milestone that has highlighted the economic scene in the new millennium. Phil also called the rise of retail gas prices in 2001. Most recently, Phil Flynn has again accurately predicted that global crude oil prices would reach close to $40/barrel ($39.99/barrel) in 2004. Through hundreds of media interviews, Phil Flynn has become familiar names in living rooms and boardrooms worldwide. The world's print, broadcast, online media and small businesses have come to rely on Phil's accurate and animated forecasts, analysis, speculative and hedging opportunities.

Get daily research letters from Phil Flynn

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide. Now you can get this highly sought after analysis with your daily research newsletter from Phil Flynn. Learn more about this complimentary offer and sign-up today.