Fast Break: The Week Ahead

Week of October 27, 2008

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5 Hot Picks by Sterling Smith of FuturesOne
Sterling Smith is developer and publisher of the FuturesOne Power Index, and a 15-year market veteran. Registered as a CTA he is a noted Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa analyst. Sterling works with clients of all sizes to help improve their trading.

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S&P 500
We made a new low print at 825 overnight here, and most of my indicators indicate that yes, further work on the downside seems to be more likely. The 770-800 area is major support area going back to the 2002-2003 lows, and are likely to be tested this week. The good news is that the market usually rallies after a presidential election. However nothing about this correction has been very normal, so we can't really count on that either. Expect volatile, mean, bear market trading to continue.
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Currencies
The US dollar has allowed me to keep at least one part of my "Bullish on America" stance. The greenback's strength has been unbounded through all of the twisting and turning, and don't really see this abating this week at least, and test of the 92.00 area here seems likely.
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Metals
Silver as now breaking the 9.00 level, and further downside work seems very likely. Copper has totally imploded, along with the global economy, and I am looking for a test of the 150.00 area sooner rather than later. Gold thus far has been the most immune from the massive correction that has hit nearly everything, but I have serious doubts about how long this can continue, and I am fearful that a "trap door" correction can occur...meaning an unheard of one day loss seems possible, and could hit at any time.
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Corn
Corn is down more than 50 pct from the June highs, and don't see this slide stopping. Given the amount of wealth destruction that has occurred and is going to continue to occur, and I expect the $3.00 area to be tested and breached.
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Crude Oil
Crude oil is now trading just above $60.00, putting it more than $80.00 from the highs and this is the only good news for consumers, as gasoline prices are dropping at an amazing pace, and this will help us out down the road, but the damage has been done, and only time will heal this. I do expect crude prices to continue their slide, with a test of the $50.00 level very likely this week.

In closing, these are very difficult markets unlike anything anyone has ever seen, and this has been going on for a period longer than is normal. This too shall pass and we will return to a much calmer environment eventually. Now is the time to do your homework and get ready for the coming attractions.

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5 Hot Picks by Lee Gaus of EFG Group
Lee GausLee Gaus has thirty years of experience in the commodities industry. In 1992, Lee established EFG Group along with his two partners who are long-time friends. Since then, Lee has traveled the U.S. conducting seminars and trading meetings for retail traders and commodity offices.

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The commodity futures markets being impacted by the equity markets continue to be remarkably unstable. In my view as long as the equity markets continue to wretch lower the commodity markets will be hard pressed to maintain any meaningful rally. Given the degree with which both the equity and commodity markets have fallen, I am not inclined to be an aggressive seller. I will suggest selling into significant rallies, and look to spread trade in the near term.

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Corn / Wheat Spread
Buy December Corn/Sell December Wheat at -$1.50, targeting $-1.20 to $-1.10
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Soybean Meal Spread
Buy December Soybean Meal/Sell July 09 Soybean Meal @ $ -8.00
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Soybean Spread
Buy November Soybean/Sell July 09 Soybeans @ -35

If you would rather have just a straight long or short position, consider the following trade ideas:
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Gold
Sell December Gold around $760.00
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Coffee
Sell December Coffee around $112.00
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Disclaimer: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked us to also advise you that trading futures is not without risk. While there is opportunity for incredible wealth building, there is also the risk of losing even more than you invested. Of course, that's not unlike most other businesses. But informed traders are the best traders! Opinions expressed by Fast Break authors are not those of FutureSource.